[Opinion] Is NATO a joke? Should they be ridiculed?

[Stonehaven]

Since January 16, 2026 the Russian military has concomitantly invaded multiple countries within NATO, yet NATO is powerless to counteract Russia's expansionist policy in North America and continental Europe: USA, Canada, Great Britain, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Poland, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey.

Which begs the question: Did NATO seriously underestimate Russia's military capability?

 

[diana_i_gusarova]

I think that after the collapse of the USSR, NATO turned into a very bureaucratic organization, more formal than operational. Now Europe is scared by Russia's actions, and everything is starting to change, but very slowly. The world is being reformatted, and the old order established after 1945 has collapsed. Everyone wants to grab their piece of the pie. The main problem for the West is not Russia, but China.

 

[reverendsteveii]

Did NATO seriously underestimate Russia's military capability?

I think they overestimated their own willingness to respond. According to the charter, the recent Russian aggression of the last decade or so should have resulted in a world war but would more or less be a Russian stomp absent the entire org committing to open war (including the US). There's a significant strategic change between what's happening now and what made NATO functional during the cold war: the US swings the biggest...ahem....potential contribution and during the cold war the US viewed Russia as an existential threat. That meant that the US was willing to put boots on the ground all over the world in proxy wars in order to prevent hegemonic gains by the USSR. That attitude isn't there now. Russian aggression is seen as a leverage point, a way for the US to extract tribute in exchange for lukewarm financial commitments. NATO can't survive its largest contributor being at best indifferent to the org's goals and at worst being actively hostile to them. The ruling class in the west viewed communism as a threat to the entire global order but sees post-communist russian expansion as a threat only to the areas being invaded, and is happy to contribute cash and weapons as long as they can asymmetrically bleed russia of same but sees fulfilling their promise to respond to aggression in-kind as a bridge too far. The common cause has crumbled. The world sees a post-communist Russia as someone that can be worked and bargained with.

 

[diana_i_gusarova]

During the Cold War, skirmishes followed the so-called "arc of tension" - Indochina, the Middle East, Latin America, etc. No one wanted to fight seriously. It's the same now. The West supports Ukraine with one hand and trades with Russia with the other. Business comes first. Odessa is controlled by Ukraine, but the ammonia from there goes to Russian factories. Just business. Just money. And the dead and maimed on both sides don't count.

 

[reverendsteveii]

During the Cold War, skirmishes followed the so-called "arc of tension" - Indochina, the Middle East, Latin America, etc. No one wanted to fight seriously. It's the same now. The West supports Ukraine with one hand and trades with Russia with the other. Business comes first. Odessa is controlled by Ukraine, but the ammonia from there goes to Russian factories. Just business. Just money. And the dead and maimed on both sides don't count.

I think you've hit on the big difference: trade. Now that Russia can be traded with, their control over new areas really only threatens the old owners. They're not outside the global aristocracy pissing in, they're inside pissing out.

 

[diana_i_gusarova]

I live in Russia and I see the situation from the inside. It's very bad. Ukraine is a "tasty morsel". One third of all chernozem lands in the world. During WW2, the Nazis transported Ukrainian land by train to the Reich. Ukraine produces 10% of all wheat in the world, 15% of all corn, 50% of sunflower oil, etc. Mineral reserves in the bowels of Ukraine are estimated at 10-12 trillion US dollars. A tasty morsel for any imperialist predator. As a Marxist would say.

 

[Swampdweller900]

It really shouldn't be overlooked that Russia has nuclear weapons, and it's a certainly non-zero chance that Putin would be self-centered and desperate enough to use them. If it wasn't for his desire to take Kiev intact and roll in as a victorious hero, I expect he would have sent one in by now. So NATO likely isn't willing to push too hard against the borders of Russia with that in mind. Especially with Krakow or Vilnius close enough to get hit as a "F you" move. I genuinely don't think a nuke in Europe would illicit a retaliation attack, and Putin has spent 20 years doing exactly this kind of slow progression in Georgia and Crimea, and been successful. He might send in one just to call NATO's bluff, that they're not willing to turn Moscow to rubble just because he's willing to do the same to a city.

But 4 years of this stuff... FFS.

 

[Amadeus]

But 4 years

I don't think NATO would be a complete joke if things got serious enough.
Will it get that serious? Maybe but Russia will probably break down before that.

Looking at the current course of events, Russia is in a downward spiral. It's sanctioned into pieces, there's no gas, so many ruined lives, economically breaking down. The overall is boiling, it's only getting worse. Can't even run farm equipment, playing the amish game. Inevitable collapse, one way or another.

My guess: At some point there will be a general mobilization. Since there are normal people over there as well, it will turn into chaos. Not enough equipment and no gas to move things either, upset people all over. I smell chaos.
Eventually something will change in the regime. Leaders get overthrown and replaced.
The country will break into independent areas, the oblasts whatever they call them.

What will happen, we'll see...

 

[Swampdweller900]

I don't think NATO would be a complete joke if things got serious enough.
Will it get that serious? Maybe but Russia will probably break down before that.

Looking at the current course of events, Russia is in a downward spiral. It's sanctioned into pieces, there's no gas, so many ruined lives, economically breaking down. The overall is boiling, it's only getting worse. Can't even run farm equipment, playing the amish game. Inevitable collapse, one way or another.

My guess: At some point there will be a general mobilization. Since there are normal people over there as well, it will turn into chaos. Not enough equipment and no gas to move things either, upset people all over. I smell chaos.
Eventually something will change in the regime. Leaders get overthrown and replaced.
The country will break into independent areas, the oblasts whatever they call them.

What will happen, we'll see...

All things people said 2 years ago. All things I thought 2 years ago. After Progozhin's plane went down, I thought that was the start of the end, but just one more consolidation. It's a full on Rhodesia/Vietnam situation where the only way Russia will stop is when they literally run out of things to throw at Ukraine. @diana_i_gusarova - are we all way off, here? It seems like as bad as things are where you're at, a large push of normal people to actually do something and risk being hurt for it, is far, far away from where we're at now. And your Dear Leader has ensured a palace coup isn't logistically possible from the start.