Summing up the Iran situation

[solxyz]

1) The US looks for an off-ramp and cedes control of the Strait of Hormuz to Iran.

From what I have been reading recently, Trump is starting to incline toward this option. Which indicates how severe the problems with option 3 are.

IMO, this will linger until it's well and truly worn out, and then when there's an opportunity to just quit and stop and ignore it all in favor of a new distraction, it'll all just go away.

That is of course Trump's preferred MO, but Trump is not omnipotent. The big problem is that Iran is not going to just let this "go away." Either Trump gives them major concessions or they are going to keep the strait closed, which is going to start inflicting very serious pain quite soon, as the strategic reserve is getting dangerously low and other global reserves are also running low.

4) An ongoing conflict is considered better for purposes of propaganda and invoking domestic wartime powers on a semi-permanent basis, and insiders continue to leverage the effect of military status updates on local markets in order to effectively turn the war into a wealth transfer by coordinating with the white house about when announcements are made and what they contain.

That kind of thing could be useful in some cases, but this conflict is inflicting major costs that can't be kept up indefinitely.

 

[Rynnshng]

The present situation looks to be in danger of spreading South linking the Middle-Eastern conflict with the African continent and its numerous civil wars through the chain link of Yemen, and Egypt which is reporting drone strikes; and spreading North linking the Ukraine-Russia war to the Middle East as well following Ukrainian strikes on Iranian assets - leading to one giant conflagration and a maelstrom that draws what remains of NATO in through preservation, other nations by proximity or called in by allies. Reports just in relate a Russian missile straying into Poland. RSF ordered to seize Khartoum in Sudan. Egypt, Yemen, Sudan - a nice little triangle overlapping the warzone.

The greatest danger right now is incident baiting to bring in new players and typical over-reactions of some great powers to use disproportionate response which would lead directly to the corridor of acting in the interest of existential threats, and an open fire-fight or hot World War 3. Let's not forget the only reason the USA is a superpower it's the only nation to ever use nuclear weapons against another, (Japan) ruling by terror and which it considered its only option to stop the last world war. Discussion of the various sides submarine fleets is non-existent. They play a critical role in warfare but if Iran was able to detect Israel's cloaked planes during its supposed stealth sorties, then the aggressors may (rightly) fear their submarines are naked to surprise technologies, like the hypersonic asymmetry that America/Israel notably lack.

The only way to stop what's happening is to destroy and even irradiate the lands claimed by Israel (in a rapidly narrowing window) so it becomes uninhabitable for hundreds if not thousands of years. But that would require a rogue pre-eminent strike of a magnitude that would finish the job swiftly -and I'm not sure a single nuke, even today, has that capacity. I had a dream the French did it.

It's quite the mess. There's no logic to it - its religious madness.
From the geriatric Netanyahu and Trump's perspectives, they win whether they live or die.
One thinks he's a descendant of Moses, the other pretends he's the Pope

If it kicks off - I hope we do ~better~ next time around.