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IMO, this will linger until it's well and truly worn out, and then when there's an opportunity to just quit and stop and ignore it all in favor of a new distraction, it'll all just go away.
That is of course Trump's preferred MO, but Trump is not omnipotent. The big problem is that Iran is not going to just let this "go away." Either Trump gives them major concessions or they are going to keep the strait closed, which is going to start inflicting very serious pain quite soon, as the strategic reserve is getting dangerously low and other global reserves are also running low.
4) An ongoing conflict is considered better for purposes of propaganda and invoking domestic wartime powers on a semi-permanent basis, and insiders continue to leverage the effect of military status updates on local markets in order to effectively turn the war into a wealth transfer by coordinating with the white house about when announcements are made and what they contain.
The present situation looks to be in danger of spreading South linking the Middle-Eastern conflict with the African continent and its numerous civil wars through the chain link of Yemen, and Egypt which is reporting drone strikes; and spreading North linking the Ukraine-Russia war to the Middle East as well following Ukrainian strikes on Iranian assets - leading to one giant conflagration and a maelstrom that draws what remains of NATO in through preservation, other nations by proximity or called in by allies. Reports just in relate a Russian missile straying into Poland. RSF ordered to seize Khartoum in Sudan. Egypt, Yemen, Sudan - a nice little triangle overlapping the warzone.
The greatest danger right now is incident baiting to bring in new players and typical over-reactions of some great powers to use disproportionate response which would lead directly to the corridor of acting in the interest of existential threats, and an open fire-fight or hot World War 3. Let's not forget the only reason the USA is a superpower it's the only nation to ever use nuclear weapons against another, (Japan) ruling by terror and which it considered its only option to stop the last world war. Discussion of the various sides submarine fleets is non-existent. They play a critical role in warfare but if Iran was able to detect Israel's cloaked planes during its supposed stealth sorties, then the aggressors may (rightly) fear their submarines are naked to surprise technologies, like the hypersonic asymmetry that America/Israel notably lack.
The only way to stop what's happening is to destroy and even irradiate the lands claimed by Israel (in a rapidly narrowing window) so it becomes uninhabitable for hundreds if not thousands of years. But that would require a rogue pre-eminent strike of a magnitude that would finish the job swiftly -and I'm not sure a single nuke, even today, has that capacity. I had a dream the French did it.
It's quite the mess. There's no logic to it - its religious madness.
From the geriatric Netanyahu and Trump's perspectives, they win whether they live or die.
One thinks he's a descendant of Moses, the other pretends he's the Pope
If it kicks off - I hope we do ~better~ next time around.
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Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and Pakistani have signed the 'Mecca Joint Defence Pact' a miniature 'attack-on-one-is-an-attack-on-all' version of NATO's Article 5, solidifying the situation developed above. Now the countries are packed wall-to-wall in the security dilemma.
And now, the stage is set for the most dangerous conditions possible in the greater region since these countries borders already have hostile zones, Yemen-Saudi-Arabia, Pakistan-India-Afghanistan, Israel-Everyone, can be impacted by falling fly-overs (such as between Iran-Ukraine) or exacerbated by antagonists; and whose joint response will force an existential fire fight.
As soon as the USA, furious at being cut out of its previous sphere of influence over the open-shut-open Strait of Hormuz, decides to bomb Iran, Iran will Bomb Saudi Arabia, the Mecca Pact will bomb Iran. Ad infinitum. Resulting in an escalation of rapid disproportionate response.
All it takes is one spark, eagerly supplied by Zionist Israel, the Mossad and CIA to ignite the fuse - or any number of miscalculations/calculations.
Since one can infer they understand the implications of Mutually Assured Destruction - one can also wonder at their boldness, if not eschatological madness that has divorced itself from issues that concern the realm of matter in favour of their demented spiritual visions - then why would you willing consign the world to flames along with yourself? They certainly have bunkers like NORAD and Iron Mountain to retreat to, and doomsday complexes using their endless wealth on their purchased islands, intending to live out their pedophile fantasies without the interference of the rational, ethical, empathic Goyim.
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Libya has reported drone attacks on its largest refinery at Zawiya. This is likely intended to bring Egypt into the war, if Libya and Israel/Iran/X begin exchanging fire as Egypt risks being hit with wayward munitions.
A quadcopter drone with plastic explosives attached to it flew unnoticed past air defence installations at Germany’s Leipzig/Halle Airport.
Foreign drones flew over the RAAF Williamstown in Australia (in July).
These are precisely the escalations expected, detailed above, and characterise the behaviour of 'antagonists' seeking to bring new players to the table and broaden the continental conflict into global conflict, especially through false flag charges, such as Israel blaming Iran. Once the bombs start flying, it doesn't matter who started it, just who finishes it.
1) The US looks for an off-ramp and cedes control of the Strait of Hormuz to Iran. This puts the dollar's hegemony in jeopardy. It also makes a nuclear war between Israel and Iran likelier down the line
First bit seems an accurate prediction, but it was reasonably to be expected that the current US kakistocracy wouldn't be able to win this war against Iran. Especially after the desperate attempts of their commander in queef to declare victory many times over and over.
Sure they had a chance of winning since they had the best military in the world, but it was being led by the most incompetent ideologues. The type that never admit a mistake therefore never learn anything. They think they're the toughest and the others have no cards. Terminally underestimating opponents by believing their own braggadocio.
And they made Iran look morally superior to the US. That is quite the accomplishment, but tracks with the death of American Exceptionalism as shown by the administration.
Even when their press tries to propagandize a claim of victory no one believes it except for the most fanatic
They starved their own troops because the US bases and supplies were wiped out and their leadership didn't want anyone to know their fuck up. Now they want to 'reassess" their presence in the region. Which is to say the US is trying to find a way to spin it that they meant to have their shit pushed in and lose.
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And declaring the Straits as American territory carries as much weight as some random person anywhere declaring it's theirs. Everyone knowns that and that's how far opinions of US has fallen to keep up with the reality of their wishful thinking.
It's like the us admin is trying to run the country on a veneer of the law of attraction.
I noticed on YouTube a large percentage of the comments appear to back the mullahs, rather than Trump. I know Trump has his anger issues but even so I'd rate him as saner and more rational than the mullahs. When it comes down to it, if Iran obtained a nuclear weapon, the world would seriously be at risk. WW2 showed where appeasement can end so I think some country had to intervene and do something.
In alignment with my above predictions of disproportionate response, Iran has now declared "Iran will answer future attacks on its interests or security with "faster, heavier, and more painful" strikes, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said on Sunday, declaring that the era of "proportionate responses" was over.". If this is a legitimate geopolitical stance and not sabre-rattling, it signals a potential evolution of abandoning the equilibrium of trading kinetic blows that characterises all 20th century, and most 21st century approaches to, and rhetoric during, wars, except those involving the United States since the bombing of Hiroshima when the USA used nuclear weapons against Japan. The stated abandonment of proportionate response is in spirit a disproportionate response of its own, though one that matches the calculated callousness of Iran's opponents and is necessary to adopt. Now we wait to see how quickly disproportionate response escalates and it won't necessarily be economic or kinetic or cyber based but much crueller, meaner and pettier as each country attacks the other's rawest spots in unrestrained warfare. It could involve bioweapons and likely to unveil tactics that take the breath away with their ferocity and ingenuity. Not that it needs to, Australia could be brought to a standstill in an hour with the right phrases and a mobile phone given the predictability of its response architecture - and all Western countries have the same architecture. As the successors of the great Persia, I look forward to seeing some of these forms manifest purely from the standpoint of a curious observer as to what countries are actually capable of when they really fight, and how they fight, but without resorting to MAD. The Strait has been shut just 6 months - with already some interesting novel effects.
It is a fascinating, unprecedented theatre to watch the US and Iran conflict unfold in real-time. The USA has likely translated Ghalibaf's comments as kinetic, but I think they are referring to a more dangerous magico-political arena than simply firing missiles. The ONA may even enjoy the destruction of the combinate Magi sooner than anticipated.
Occcupation of Venezuela comes to look more and more attractive as opposed to dumping endless money into a useless war with Iran. Venezuela having the world’s largest untapped oil reserves.
It seems clear enough Iran has been rapidly doing it's utmost to obtain nuclear weapons. Personally, I think that would be an extremely dangerous scenario. So far, those countries that do have nuclear weapons have demonstrated rational restraint, even North Korea. The clerics in Iran don't strike me as rational in that area. They could even supply hugely destructive weapons to fanatical groups. The question is why is Iran intent on enriching uranium well beyond what's required for simple energy supply? It kind of surprises me a lot of countries don't view a nuclear armed Iran as a threat.
Occcupation of Venezuela comes to look more and more attractive as opposed to dumping endless money into a useless war with Iran. Venezuela having the world’s largest untapped oil reserves.
It seems clear enough Iran has been rapidly doing it's utmost to obtain nuclear weapons. Personally, I think that would be an extremely dangerous scenario. So far, those countries that do have nuclear weapons have demonstrated rational restraint, even North Korea. The clerics in Iran don't strike me as rational in that area. They could even supply hugely destructive weapons to fanatical groups. The question is why is Iran intent on enriching uranium well beyond what's required for simple energy supply? It kind of surprises me a lot of countries don't view a nuclear armed Iran as a threat.
The Iranian position had long been one of maintaining the "rapid capacity" for nuclear weapons as a strategic deterrent but stopping short of actually making one (having nuclear weapons, let alone using them, is haram according to Shia rulings). The kikes know that and understood that this was a strategic position, even as they've used misrepresentation of that strategic position as a way of getting Americans into yet another Middle Eastern war. These nuances are lost on Trump, his administration and people who stream Fox into their cranium, possibly because they involve sustained thinking for more than four seconds. If Iran had truly wanted nuclear weapons they could have long-since made them or even purchased one from Russia who have thousands of them and are short on money. Now that "rapid capacity" as failed as a deterrent (they were still bombed anyway) it's probable that Iran either will assemble one in defiance of the Shia rulings or, more likely, enter a military alliance with Pakistan who are a nuclear power. Either way, since America fell for Jewish lies, the world is now much less safe than it was.
The Iranian position had long been one of maintaining the "rapid capacity" for nuclear weapons as a strategic deterrent but stopping short of actually making one (having nuclear weapons, let alone using them, is haram according to Shia rulings). The kikes know that and understood that this was a strategic position, even as they've used misrepresentation of that strategic position as a way of getting Americans into yet another Middle Eastern war. These nuances are lost on Trump, his administration and people who stream Fox into their cranium, possibly because they involve sustained thinking for more than four seconds. If Iran had truly wanted nuclear weapons they could have long-since made them or even purchased one from Russia who have thousands of them and are short on money. Now that "rapid capacity" as failed as a deterrent (they were still bombed anyway) it's probable that Iran either will assemble one in defiance of the Shia rulings or, more likely, enter a military alliance with Pakistan who are a nuclear power. Either way, since America fell for Jewish lies, the world is now much less safe than it was.
I doubt Russia would enable Iran with nuclear weapons. They have many dual Russian, Israeli citizens, hence business and travel interests in Israel. They don't want a full scale war to break out.
Iran has been funding their militant factions for some years, repressing the Iranian population, even killing thousands of protesters. I must admit, though Trump has many faults, I agree with his choice to act. I think he made the decision genuinely out of consideration of American interest - the nearing threat of a nuclear Iran with ICBM missiles that could effectively reach New York. True, maybe Iran would still be far away from delivering a nuclear ICBM but probably they were weeks away from an actual bomb.
The question remains how far has Iran been set back. It's not quite clear how many facilities have been put out of action.
Who's suppressing it? I heard it with my morning coffee. Par for the course, the "middle east is a clusterfuck"!
All part of the plan? Give us your deepest insights BE!
It seems clear enough Iran has been rapidly doing it's utmost to obtain nuclear weapons. Personally, I think that would be an extremely dangerous scenario. So far, those countries that do have nuclear weapons have demonstrated rational restraint, even North Korea. The clerics in Iran don't strike me as rational in that area. They could even supply hugely destructive weapons to fanatical groups. The question is why is Iran intent on enriching uranium well beyond what's required for simple energy supply? It kind of surprises me a lot of countries don't view a nuclear armed Iran as a threat.
If the mullahs in Iran were actually irrational then they would have already distributed radiation enhanced weapons to their surrogates and they would have been used. Radiation enhanced weapons are much easier to develop and are definitely within reach of current Iranian technology.
Thus the mullahs are not as irrational as they might seem by some.
Yeah, this is really something to seriously consider, (all) religious fanatics are well...fucking nuts! They'll gladly ruin their own day, for a chance to ruin yours! You have to deal Hard with the MF'S, otherwise they simply don't seem to "get it". Why do you suppose that is? And... there are those who would turn their back on this and simply let Iran fully develop nukes. And, some of them are Here! Now that's Scary!
Interesting observation! Where do you draw the line between "crazy, stupid, and/or desperate"? Just kidding.
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Yeah, this is really something to seriously consider, (all) religious fanatics are well...fucking nuts! They'll gladly ruin their own day, for a chance to ruin yours! You have to deal Hard with the MF'S, otherwise they simply don't seem to "get it". Why do you suppose that is? And... there are those who would turn their back on this and simply let Iran fully develop nukes. And, some of them are Here! Now that's Scary!
Israel and the US has turned Iran into a fetish. They have both turned Iran into some kind of monster. And I am speaking as a former military Gay man, very left politically, super pro human rights following a European model. Internally they ARE an evil freedom-denying death state. Externally they are pursuing rational politics focused on eclectic warfare. This warfare has been limited so far. We'd have to really examine their collective actions in detail since the Revolution to see where they went too far and to see how their strategy has changed (something like this must exist at the Institute for the Study of War but I haven't seen it - it must also exist internally in the US Army specifically, perhaps in all the services as well as at the CIA [where I would expect different possibly competiting analyses]. The Commerce Dept must have their own analysis as well.).
However if they were "crazy" they would already have fielded radiation enhanced weapons as I mentioned. Even if they had not been used, Mossad would have beat that drum (unless it happened during one of their incompetent periods and they missed it initially).
So the Iranian leadership (so wider than the mullahs) isn't crazy. Because otherwise they would have done this.
So why are they enriching uranium beyond that necessary for a peaceful nuclear reactor? It's can't be for a safe design because safe designs do not use uranium. They are being deliberately provocative. We have had an endless stream of analysis, initially nightly, concerning this problem. Well, during the Iraqi-Iranian War the Iranians were faced with the prospect of actual defeat on the battlefield. This was so threatening that they released people who had studied at military academies in the West that they had not yet killed. Slowly these people brought them victory. But they decided that they needed to at least have the option to develop a nuclear weapon as a final option. So in their minds this is a settled strategy and is intended for deployment against other Middle Eastern states in the event of a disaster on the battlefield. Theoretically it is also intended as an option against Israel should Israel deploy a nuclear device against them. But so far all of their development has been back burner development (unless they were actually involved in the development of the NK nuclear devices following NK's initial "failure" [not full success]). Except for the possibility of involvement in NK, Iran has never tested a nuclear device and apparently not a sub-nuclear device either.
So why put their development under mountains and devote some considerable economic and scientific capital to this effort? They are pursuing a strategy of a kind of passive deterrence by attempting to keep their opponents off balance constantly and forcing their opponents to invest capital in surveilling and occasionally attacking them, for which they got an enormous internal benefit (got - past tense - they may not be getting that benefit internally now).
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I couldn't edit or delete what I posted and I am a notorious misspeller : this is what I intended to post:
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Israel and the US has turned fear of Iran into a fetish. They have both turned Iran into some kind of fearsome monster all out of proportion with their actual capabilities (until recently, they DO have a wider range of industrial-military capabilities than they used to although they are still a second rate military power). And I am speaking as a former military Gay man, very left politically, super pro human rights following a European model. Internally they ARE an evil freedom-denying death state. Externally they are pursuing rational politics focused on eclectic warfare. This warfare has been limited so far. We'd have to really examine their collective actions in detail since the Revolution to see where they went too far and to see how their strategy has changed (something like this must exist at the Institute for the Study of War but I haven't seen it - it must also exist internally in the US Army specifically, perhaps in all the services as well as at the CIA [where I would expect different possibly competing analyses]. The Commerce Dept must have their own analysis as well.).
However if they were "crazy" they would already have fielded radiation enhanced weapons as I mentioned. Even if they had not been used, Mossad would have beat that drum (unless it happened during one of their incompetent periods and they missed it initially).
So the Iranian leadership (so wider than the mullahs) isn't crazy. Because otherwise they would have done this.
So why are they enriching uranium beyond that necessary for a peaceful nuclear reactor? It's can't be for a safe design because safe designs do not use uranium. They are being deliberately provocative. We have had an endless stream of analysis, initially nightly, concerning this problem. Well, during the Iraqi-Iranian War the Iranians were faced with the prospect of actual defeat on the battlefield. This was so threatening that they released people who had studied at military academies in the West that they had not yet killed. Slowly these people brought them victory. But they decided that they needed to at least have the option to develop a nuclear weapon as a final option. So in their minds this is a settled strategy and is intended for deployment against other Middle Eastern states in the event of a disaster on the battlefield. Theoretically it is also intended as an option against Israel should Israel deploy a nuclear device against them. But so far all of their development has been back burner development (unless they were actually involved in the development of the NK nuclear devices following NK's initial "failure" [not full success]). Except for the possibility of involvement in NK, Iran has never tested a nuclear device and apparently not a sub-nuclear device either.
So why put their development under mountains and devote some considerable economic and scientific capital to this effort? They are pursuing a strategy of a kind of passive deterrence by attempting to keep their opponents off balance constantly and forcing their opponents to invest capital in surveilling and occasionally attacking them, for which they got an enormous internal benefit (got - past tense - they may not be getting that benefit internally now).
OK, I'll buy that. I heard about the airport a couple of times both evening and morning news. The Saudi's would want to downplay the energy infrastructure, makes them look weak. Sooner or later the bulk of the Middle East will have to deal with Iran, especially since the rest of the world
mostly wants to cop out with "it's not our problem"! Yeah, they are everyone's problem, they won't ever go away of their own accord, duh!
Israel and the US has turned Iran into a fetish. They have both turned Iran into some kind of monster. And I am speaking as a former military Gay man, very left politically, super pro human rights following a European model. Internally they ARE an evil freedom-denying death state. Externally they are pursuing rational politics focused on eclectic warfare. This warfare has been limited so far. We'd have to really examine their collective actions in detail since the Revolution to see where they went too far and to see how their strategy has changed (something like this must exist at the Institute for the Study of War but I haven't seen it - it must also exist internally in the US Army specifically, perhaps in all the services as well as at the CIA [where I would expect different possibly competiting analyses]. The Commerce Dept must have their own analysis as well.).
However if they were "crazy" they would already have fielded radiation enhanced weapons as I mentioned. Even if they had not been used, Mossad would have beat that drum (unless it happened during one of their incompetent periods and they missed it initially).
So the Iranian leadership (so wider than the mullahs) isn't crazy. Because otherwise they would have done this.
So why are they enriching uranium beyond that necessary for a peaceful nuclear reactor? It's can't be for a safe design because safe designs do not use uranium. They are being deliberately provocative. We have had an endless stream of analysis, initially nightly, concerning this problem. Well, during the Iraqi-Iranian War the Iranians were faced with the prospect of actual defeat on the battlefield. This was so threatening that they released people who had studied at military academies in the West that they had not yet killed. Slowly these people brought them victory. But they decided that they needed to at least have the option to develop a nuclear weapon as a final option. So in their minds this is a settled strategy and is intended for deployment against other Middle Eastern states in the event of a disaster on the battlefield. Theoretically it is also intended as an option against Israel should Israel deploy a nuclear device against them. But so far all of their development has been back burner development (unless they were actually involved in the development of the NK nuclear devices following NK's initial "failure" [not full success]). Except for the possibility of involvement in NK, Iran has never tested a nuclear device and apparently not a sub-nuclear device either.
So why put their development under mountains and devote some considerable economic and scientific capital to this effort? They are pursuing a strategy of a kind of passive deterrence by attempting to keep their opponents off balance constantly and forcing their opponents to invest capital in surveilling and occasionally attacking them, for which they got an enormous internal benefit (got - past tense - they may not be getting that benefit internally now).
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I couldn't edit or delete what I posted and I am a notorious misspeller : this is what I intended to post:
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Israel and the US has turned fear of Iran into a fetish. They have both turned Iran into some kind of fearsome monster all out of proportion with their actual capabilities (until recently, they DO have a wider range of industrial-military capabilities than they used to although they are still a second rate military power). And I am speaking as a former military Gay man, very left politically, super pro human rights following a European model. Internally they ARE an evil freedom-denying death state. Externally they are pursuing rational politics focused on eclectic warfare. This warfare has been limited so far. We'd have to really examine their collective actions in detail since the Revolution to see where they went too far and to see how their strategy has changed (something like this must exist at the Institute for the Study of War but I haven't seen it - it must also exist internally in the US Army specifically, perhaps in all the services as well as at the CIA [where I would expect different possibly competing analyses]. The Commerce Dept must have their own analysis as well.).
However if they were "crazy" they would already have fielded radiation enhanced weapons as I mentioned. Even if they had not been used, Mossad would have beat that drum (unless it happened during one of their incompetent periods and they missed it initially).
So the Iranian leadership (so wider than the mullahs) isn't crazy. Because otherwise they would have done this.
So why are they enriching uranium beyond that necessary for a peaceful nuclear reactor? It's can't be for a safe design because safe designs do not use uranium. They are being deliberately provocative. We have had an endless stream of analysis, initially nightly, concerning this problem. Well, during the Iraqi-Iranian War the Iranians were faced with the prospect of actual defeat on the battlefield. This was so threatening that they released people who had studied at military academies in the West that they had not yet killed. Slowly these people brought them victory. But they decided that they needed to at least have the option to develop a nuclear weapon as a final option. So in their minds this is a settled strategy and is intended for deployment against other Middle Eastern states in the event of a disaster on the battlefield. Theoretically it is also intended as an option against Israel should Israel deploy a nuclear device against them. But so far all of their development has been back burner development (unless they were actually involved in the development of the NK nuclear devices following NK's initial "failure" [not full success]). Except for the possibility of involvement in NK, Iran has never tested a nuclear device and apparently not a sub-nuclear device either.
So why put their development under mountains and devote some considerable economic and scientific capital to this effort? They are pursuing a strategy of a kind of passive deterrence by attempting to keep their opponents off balance constantly and forcing their opponents to invest capital in surveilling and occasionally attacking them, for which they got an enormous internal benefit (got - past tense - they may not be getting that benefit internally now).
If the mullahs in Iran were actually irrational then they would have already distributed radiation enhanced weapons to their surrogates and they would have been used. Radiation enhanced weapons are much easier to develop and are definitely within reach of current Iranian technology.
Thus the mullahs are not as irrational as they might seem by some.
Most acts of total insanity relate to religious cults. On a very smaller scale we can consider the Charlie Manson cult. Followers believed Manson was the second coming of Christ. They butchered families in their homes with the aim to start a civil war, or Helter Skelter. Amazingly his followers were once intelligent, very creative middle class females. Hard to imagine they could be brainwashed to kill, even a pregnant woman.
Heavens Gate was a mass suicide, led by a cult leader.
Three major hostage crisis scenarios in Russia, including a school. One Isis attack involved random shooting of civilians and explosive devices.
Conclusion? I think the assumption Iran with nuclear weapons poses no real, genuine danger of actual use is wishful thinking. Some cults tend to glorify death, in the belief of a divine plan, and there is even a desire for martyrdom.
...And Iran, Iran so far awaaay 
