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Summing up the Iran situation

Beyond Everything

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Sooner or later the bulk of the Middle East will have to deal with Iran,
What can the Saudis, the Qatars, and the rest do that the US couldn't? Iran can just decimate their oil and desalinization if they feel threatened enough. People don't seem to understand Iran hasn't done all that they could, they aren't clambering up the escalation ladder. As I stated, this situation is quite insoluble.
 
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The Israelis, as I gather, are going in a direction of defence that will put them well ahead of America and Russia. Laser weapons used in space will deliver a strike capacity at close to 300,000,000 meters per second - well ahead of Russia's hypersonic missiles. These hypersonic missiles were developed to combat NATO's strategic, land advantage (especially from Poland). So far, hypersonics put Russia ahead of other countries. Israel has been working on laser defence as well as laser capability, and with some success.
 

Asteriskos

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What can the Saudis, the Qatars, and the rest do that the US couldn't? Iran can just decimate their oil and desalinization if they feel threatened enough. People don't seem to understand Iran hasn't done all that they could, they aren't clambering up the escalation ladder. As I stated, this situation is quite insoluble.
It isn't insoluble, The US and Israel haven't gone near full bore by any means, nah! Though there are a lot of innocent lives internally, that could/would suffer to get the religious whack jobs out of power. Insoluble though, no. The "solution" wouldn't be "politically pretty or correct"!
Do you think the mullahs care if their actions are "politically correct", or how they appear to the Western world? Insoluble, No!
 
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It isn't insoluble, The US and Israel haven't gone near full bore by any means, nah! Though there are a lot of innocent lives internally, that could/would suffer to get the religious whack jobs out of power. Insoluble though, no. The "solution" wouldn't be "politically pretty or correct"!
Do you think the mullahs care if their actions are "politically correct", or how they appear to the Western world? Insoluble, No!
Well said!
 

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There are other players there too. Turkey and Egypt, all the other countries in the "Islamic World? They may not feel threatened now (I don't know). Do they believe they're exempt from the reach of Iran if they want to come for them? Does Europe believe they won't be targeted if Iran get a major nuke? I don't believe a concerted effort (not a half-assed effort) can't put Iran down for the count. Fuck, when the time came even Rome fell. Insoluble, No Fucking Way, you simply Solve the Goddamned Problem!
 
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Very many Iranians want the mullahs gone. Very many Iranians totally admire Netenyahu because he's not bogged down by "progressive" over empathy.
It was a big mistake for those thousands of Iranians to just stand defenceless and get shot in the street. They should have used stealth tactics and guerilla warfare.
The best way to end this war is to create an Iranian opposition army, or an organized force that can remove the mullahs from power. The current Iranian army is no match for a well trained army, and probably on a par with Iraq in the 1990s. Trump has the right idea but it seems he's trying to tip-toe to victory.
 

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Most acts of total insanity relate to religious cults. On a very smaller scale we can consider the Charlie Manson cult. Followers believed Manson was the second coming of Christ. They butchered families in their homes with the aim to start a civil war, or Helter Skelter. Amazingly his followers were once intelligent, very creative middle class females. Hard to imagine they could be brainwashed to kill, even a pregnant woman.
Heavens Gate was a mass suicide, led by a cult leader.
Three major hostage crisis scenarios in Russia, including a school. One Isis attack involved random shooting of civilians and explosive devices.
Conclusion? I think the assumption Iran with nuclear weapons poses no real, genuine danger of actual use is wishful thinking. Some cults tend to glorify death, in the belief of a divine plan, and there is even a desire for martyrdom.
I didn't make the assumption that Iran doesn't pose a genuine danger of actual use of a nuclear weapon. However they do not seem to be making an all out attempt to secure nuclear weapons because the laws of physics are the same everywhere and they have the technology and industrial base to build and test a fission device. Unless it was masked with the NK tests (a distinct possibility) however, they have not done so. And if they had been the real hand behind the NK successes then they still would not have many devices.

I was addressing the claims that the Iranians are irrational.. They are not. Otherwise numerous radiologically enhanced weapons would already have been used against Israel and SA at a minimum as well as US bases in range in the current war.
 

solxyz

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It isn't insoluble, The US and Israel haven't gone near full bore by any means, nah!

It always amuses me when people think that the US and allies have good options but for some reason they just haven't chosen to use them yet.

The US and Israel haven't gone "full bore" because escalation leads to a mutually assured destruction situation. Not nuclear MAD, but civilizational MAD nevertheless, since Iran can, through direct strikes and through proxies, take out enough oil infrastructure to trigger almost immediate civilizational collapse. The only possible winner in that situation would be China, since they have invested most heavily in alternative energy sources, but even that is a big maybe, since they also would experience a massive sudden economic nosedive which could trigger revolution.
 
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I didn't make the assumption that Iran doesn't pose a genuine danger of actual use of a nuclear weapon. However they do not seem to be making an all out attempt to secure nuclear weapons because the laws of physics are the same everywhere and they have the technology and industrial base to build and test a fission device. Unless it was masked with the NK tests (a distinct possibility) however, they have not done so. And if they had been the real hand behind the NK successes then they still would not have many devices.

I was addressing the claims that the Iranians are irrational.. They are not. Otherwise numerous radiologically enhanced weapons would already have been used against Israel and SA at a minimum as well as US bases in range in the current war.
Israeli intelligence in that area is pretty reliable. They have their sources in Iran and they were convinced of the need to act. Large numbers of Iran's nuclear scientists were put out of action, so I imagine they have been set back at least for some time. For now that seems to be one plus to consider during the current uncertainties.
Iran must never have nuclear weapons. WW2 and the invasion of Poland came about through pacification. That cost millions of lives.
 

Beyond Everything

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It isn't insoluble, The US and Israel haven't gone near full bore by any means, nah!
And why haven't they after 9 months? Again, Iran can destroy the gulf's oil and desalination infrastructure. 30% of the world's oil removed = societies collapsing. It's a simple equation. (actually more than 30%, because Iran's also would be gone)
 

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Very many Iranians want the mullahs gone. Very many Iranians totally admire Netenyahu because he's not bogged down by "progressive" over empathy.
It was a big mistake for those thousands of Iranians to just stand defenceless and get shot in the street. They should have used stealth tactics and guerilla warfare.
The best way to end this war is to create an Iranian opposition army, or an organized force that can remove the mullahs from power. The current Iranian army is no match for a well trained army, and probably on a par with Iraq in the 1990s. Trump has the right idea but it seems he's trying to tip-toe to victory.
Yes, sadly the chance to deal it internally then wasn't organized along the lines you mention. Trump seems to want to appear as nice guy, exhaust all the possibilities (US mid-terms), facing an enemy that doesn't care about appearances. The "real solution" is of course an internal one.
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because Iran's also would be gone)
Yeah, there's that.
 

frater_pan

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Israeli intelligence in that area is pretty reliable. They have their sources in Iran and they were convinced of the need to act. Large numbers of Iran's nuclear scientists were put out of action, so I imagine they have been set back at least for some time. For now that seems to be one plus to consider during the current uncertainties.
Iran must never have nuclear weapons. WW2 and the invasion of Poland came about through pacification. That cost millions of lives.
Israeli intelligence is being manipulated by Netanyahu and the Israeli fascists. In the past Netanyahu kept Likud and the coalition under control and rectified some of their extreme right tendencies. That has ended. With that, Netanyahu has betrayed his former military background as a defender of democracy and is just interested in the naked exercise of power, mostly for himself.
 
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Israeli intelligence is being manipulated by Netanyahu and the Israeli fascists. In the past Netanyahu kept Likud and the coalition under control and rectified some of their extreme right tendencies. That has ended. With that, Netanyahu has betrayed his former military background as a defender of democracy and is just interested in the naked exercise of power, mostly for himself.
It would be a huge stretch to label Israel "fascist". They are one tiny democratic, secular country, roughly the size of Wales. They are surrounded by mostly hostile neighbours.
Fascist countries like Hitler's Germany tend to invade other countries to impose their political ideology,Poland, France, Russia. Rome invaded Israel at the time of Hadrian and -being a much larger imperial army - occupied Israel to create a colony (partly as they did in Britain, which is why we have a Latin alphabet).
Iran was around that time either Parthia or Persia and fought frequent wars with the Romans. Persia had been part of Alexander The Great's empire.
It's tragic what has happened to Iran since the country still has the potential to prosper. The reign of the mullahs has kept Iran stagnant and repressed. It's a pity the Iranian masses didn't know how to take their chances for freedom when Trump stepped in. They needed to take that opportunity.
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Yes, sadly the chance to deal it internally then wasn't organized along the lines you mention. Trump seems to want to appear as nice guy, exhaust all the possibilities (US mid-terms), facing an enemy that doesn't care about appearances. The "real solution" is of course an internal one.
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Yeah, there's that.
Agreed. It seemed to me the Iranian masses had no ability to fight a stealth war. They seemed to just stand in crowds and allow themselves to be shot down.
 

frater_pan

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It would be a huge stretch to label Israel "fascist". They are one tiny democratic, secular country, roughly the size of Wales. They are surrounded by mostly hostile neighbours.
Fascist countries like Hitler's Germany tend to invade other countries to impose their political ideology,Poland, France, Russia. Rome invaded Israel at the time of Hadrian and -being a much larger imperial army - occupied Israel to create a colony (partly as they did in Britain, which is why we have a Latin alphabet).
Iran was around that time either Parthia or Persia and fought frequent wars with the Romans. Persia had been part of Alexander The Great's empire.
It's tragic what has happened to Iran since the country still has the potential to prosper. The reign of the mullahs has kept Iran stagnant and repressed. It's a pity the Iranian masses didn't know how to take their chances for freedom when Trump stepped in. They needed to take that opportunity.
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Agreed. It seemed to me the Iranian masses had no ability to fight a stealth war. They seemed to just stand in crowds and allow themselves to be shot down.
Israel as fascist is how some of the opposition to the current government within Israel is characterizing the country. Some of this opposition, as always, is from some of the Ultra-Orthodox. Some opponents of the current government in the US who are themselves Jewish (and often have an Orthodox or Ultra-Orthodox background) have also gone there. This is very difficult personally for me. But Israel has definitively and intentionally committed genocide in Gaza (and this is unfortunately not the first genocidal action it has undertaken but it is the first definitely to come from the office of the PM). This possibility was warned about for decades and has unfortunately come to pass and it came to pass at a time when democracy in the US is under attack from a US fascist Executive Branch with a Congress and Supreme Court in on an Executive Branch coup, thus dampening the criticism and possibly blockage from the US (while the US has historically supported Israel it has also at times blocked Israeli actions and from some Israeli perspectives acted to keep Israel from some potentially inhumane actions in past decades).
 
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